This notebook contains a set of analyses for analyzing J_3MBG’s boardgamegeek collection. The bulk of the analysis is focused on building a user-specific predictive model to predict the games that the specified user is likely to own. This enables us to ask questions like, based on the games the user currently owns, what games are a good fit for their collection? What upcoming games are they likely to purchase?
We can look at a basic description of the number of games that the user owns, has rated, has previously owned, etc.
What years has the user owned/rated games from? While we can’t see when a user added or removed a game from their collection, we can look at their collection by the years in which their games were published.
We can look at the most frequent types of categories, mechanics, designers, and artists that appear in a user’s collection.
We’ll examine predictive models trained on a user’s collection for games published through 2020. How many games has the user owned/rated/played in the training set (games prior to 2020)?
username | dataset | period | games_owned | games_rated |
J_3MBG | training | published before 2020 | 342 | 413 |
J_3MBG | validation | published 2020 | 39 | 36 |
J_3MBG | test | published after 2020 | 49 | 34 |
The main outcome we will be modeling for the user is owned, which refers to whether the user currently owns or has a previously owned a game in their collection. Our goal is to train a predictive model to learn the probability that a user will add a game to their collection based on its observable features. This amounts to looking at historical data and looking to find patterns that exist between features of games and games present in the user’s collection.
One of the models we trained was a decision tree, which looks for decision rules that can be used to separate games the user owns from games they don’t. The resulting model produces a decision corresponding to yes or no statements: to explain why the model predicts the user to own game, we start at the top of the tree and follow the rules that were learned from the training data.
Note: the tree below has been further pruned to make it easier to visualize.
Decision trees are highly interpretible models that are easy to train and can identify important interactions and nonlinearities present in the data. Individual trees have the drawback of being less predictive than other common models, but it can be useful to look at them to gain some understanding of key predictors and relationships found in the training data.
We can examine coefficients from another model we trained, which is a logistic regression with elastic net regularization (which I will refer to as a penalized logistic regression). Positive values indicate that a feature increases a user’s probability of owning/rating a game, while negative values indicate a feature decreases the probability. To be precise, the coefficients indicate the effect of a particular feature on the log-odds of a user owning a game.
Why did the model identify these features? We can make density plots of the important features for predicting whether the user owned a game. Blue indicates the density for games owned by the user, while grey indicates the density for games not owned by the user.
Binary predictors can be difficult to see with this visualization, so we can also directly examine the percentage of games in a user’s collection with a predictor vs the percentage of all games with that predictor.
% of Games with Feature | ||||
username | Feature | User_Collection | All_Games | Ratio |
J_3MBG | Fantasy Flight Games | 12.3% | 1.0% | 12.38 |
J_3MBG | Games Workshop Ltd | 6.4% | 0.6% | 10.40 |
J_3MBG | Days Of Wonder | 1.5% | 0.2% | 8.41 |
J_3MBG | Space Exploration | 8.8% | 1.1% | 8.21 |
J_3MBG | Games With Solitaire Rules | 32.2% | 4.8% | 6.74 |
J_3MBG | Pegasus Spiele | 11.4% | 2.1% | 5.51 |
J_3MBG | Industry Manufacturing | 6.4% | 1.2% | 5.38 |
J_3MBG | Asmodee | 13.2% | 2.5% | 5.31 |
J_3MBG | Worker Placement | 15.8% | 3.1% | 5.05 |
J_3MBG | Science Fiction | 28.9% | 7.2% | 4.01 |
J_3MBG | Action Points | 19.0% | 5.0% | 3.82 |
J_3MBG | Crowdfunding Kickstarter | 35.1% | 12.2% | 2.87 |
J_3MBG | Economic | 18.1% | 6.8% | 2.68 |
J_3MBG | Set Collection | 26.0% | 13.1% | 1.98 |
J_3MBG | Wargame | 11.4% | 18.8% | 0.61 |
J_3MBG | Hexagon Grid | 6.1% | 11.8% | 0.52 |
Before predicting games in upcoming years, we can examine how well the model did and what games it liked in the training set. In this case, we used resampling techniques (cross validation) to ensure that the model had not seen a game before making its predictions.
Displaying the 100 games from the training set with the highest probability of ownership, highlighting in blue games the user has owned.
Rank | Published | ID | Name | Pr(Owned) | Owned |
1 | 2017 | 233078 | Twilight Imperium: Fourth Edition | 0.963 | no |
2 | 2016 | 205637 | Arkham Horror: The Card Game | 0.951 | yes |
3 | 2016 | 167791 | Terraforming Mars | 0.945 | yes |
4 | 2005 | 15987 | Arkham Horror | 0.929 | yes |
5 | 2019 | 286096 | Tapestry | 0.923 | yes |
6 | 2019 | 266192 | Wingspan | 0.905 | no |
7 | 2016 | 169786 | Scythe | 0.903 | yes |
8 | 2016 | 187645 | Star Wars: Rebellion | 0.895 | yes |
9 | 2013 | 133848 | Euphoria: Build a Better Dystopia | 0.878 | yes |
10 | 2017 | 162886 | Spirit Island | 0.844 | yes |
11 | 2019 | 281946 | Aftermath | 0.839 | no |
12 | 2011 | 96848 | Mage Knight Board Game | 0.821 | no |
13 | 2015 | 181279 | Fury of Dracula (Third/Fourth Edition) | 0.811 | yes |
14 | 2007 | 27627 | Talisman: Revised 4th Edition | 0.805 | no |
15 | 2019 | 283863 | The Magnificent | 0.803 | no |
16 | 2011 | 100423 | Elder Sign | 0.802 | yes |
17 | 2016 | 156858 | Black Orchestra | 0.794 | yes |
18 | 2018 | 257499 | Arkham Horror (Third Edition) | 0.790 | yes |
19 | 2008 | 37111 | Battlestar Galactica: The Board Game | 0.787 | yes |
20 | 2012 | 104162 | Descent: Journeys in the Dark (Second Edition) | 0.783 | yes |
21 | 2017 | 188920 | This War of Mine: The Board Game | 0.779 | yes |
22 | 2018 | 199792 | Everdell | 0.753 | yes |
23 | 2012 | 124742 | Android: Netrunner | 0.741 | yes |
24 | 2016 | 205059 | Mansions of Madness: Second Edition | 0.733 | yes |
25 | 2012 | 121921 | Robinson Crusoe: Adventures on the Cursed Island | 0.723 | yes |
26 | 2018 | 170604 | Renegade | 0.711 | yes |
27 | 2017 | 174430 | Gloomhaven | 0.699 | yes |
28 | 2017 | 192455 | First Martians: Adventures on the Red Planet | 0.689 | yes |
29 | 2019 | 271896 | Star Wars: Outer Rim | 0.684 | yes |
30 | 2019 | 269385 | The Lord of the Rings: Journeys in Middle-Earth | 0.669 | no |
31 | 2005 | 12493 | Twilight Imperium: Third Edition | 0.666 | yes |
32 | 2019 | 251247 | Barrage | 0.661 | yes |
33 | 2019 | 270971 | Era: Medieval Age | 0.650 | no |
34 | 2018 | 313010 | Cosmic Encounter: 42nd Anniversary Edition | 0.649 | no |
35 | 2017 | 221194 | Dinosaur Island | 0.634 | yes |
36 | 2018 | 167355 | Nemesis | 0.623 | yes |
37 | 2018 | 214887 | CO₂: Second Chance | 0.615 | no |
38 | 2018 | 264198 | Warhammer Quest: Blackstone Fortress | 0.613 | no |
39 | 2016 | 192673 | Martians: A Story of Civilization | 0.613 | yes |
40 | 2019 | 264052 | Circadians: First Light | 0.600 | yes |
41 | 2015 | 163967 | Tiny Epic Galaxies | 0.599 | yes |
42 | 2018 | 247763 | Underwater Cities | 0.598 | yes |
43 | 2011 | 42776 | Gears of War: The Board Game | 0.598 | no |
44 | 2019 | 264220 | Tainted Grail: The Fall of Avalon | 0.592 | yes |
45 | 2018 | 205896 | Rising Sun | 0.591 | no |
46 | 2017 | 229265 | Wendake | 0.590 | no |
47 | 2015 | 183394 | Viticulture Essential Edition | 0.583 | no |
48 | 2016 | 191189 | Aeon's End | 0.583 | yes |
49 | 2014 | 132531 | Roll for the Galaxy | 0.570 | yes |
50 | 2010 | 73171 | Earth Reborn | 0.569 | no |
51 | 2008 | 39463 | Cosmic Encounter | 0.568 | yes |
52 | 2014 | 164153 | Star Wars: Imperial Assault | 0.568 | yes |
53 | 2009 | 45134 | Arcana | 0.563 | no |
54 | 2014 | 159508 | AquaSphere | 0.556 | no |
55 | 2015 | 181530 | Runebound (Third Edition) | 0.547 | no |
56 | 2012 | 123096 | Space Cadets | 0.546 | yes |
57 | 2014 | 157958 | DungeonQuest Revised Edition | 0.541 | no |
58 | 2019 | 266507 | Clank!: Legacy – Acquisitions Incorporated | 0.535 | no |
59 | 2017 | 191051 | Outlive | 0.532 | yes |
60 | 2018 | 245638 | Coimbra | 0.531 | no |
61 | 2017 | 197376 | Charterstone | 0.530 | yes |
62 | 2018 | 242191 | Tierra y Libertad: The Mexican Revolution Game (Second Edition) | 0.525 | no |
63 | 2017 | 232918 | Fallout | 0.519 | yes |
64 | 2018 | 247236 | Duelosaur Island | 0.518 | no |
65 | 2019 | 257066 | Sierra West | 0.517 | no |
66 | 2017 | 199561 | Sagrada | 0.514 | yes |
67 | 2019 | 217576 | Hellenica: Story of Greece | 0.512 | no |
68 | 2016 | 177736 | A Feast for Odin | 0.511 | no |
69 | 2019 | 285774 | Marvel Champions: The Card Game | 0.509 | yes |
70 | 2017 | 157979 | Tau Ceti: Planetary Crisis | 0.502 | no |
71 | 2014 | 157354 | Five Tribes | 0.497 | no |
72 | 2010 | 62227 | Labyrinth: The War on Terror, 2001 – ? | 0.492 | no |
73 | 1997 | 42 | Tigris & Euphrates | 0.484 | yes |
74 | 2012 | 122515 | Keyflower | 0.474 | no |
75 | 2014 | 159675 | Fields of Arle | 0.471 | no |
76 | 2007 | 28143 | Race for the Galaxy | 0.471 | yes |
77 | 2019 | 276025 | Maracaibo | 0.464 | no |
78 | 2010 | 73439 | Troyes | 0.462 | yes |
79 | 1986 | 58 | Kings & Things | 0.460 | no |
80 | 2006 | 25417 | BattleLore | 0.459 | no |
81 | 2013 | 138161 | Firefly: The Game | 0.453 | no |
82 | 2017 | 227789 | Heaven & Ale | 0.449 | no |
83 | 2017 | 192135 | Too Many Bones | 0.446 | yes |
84 | 2013 | 146021 | Eldritch Horror | 0.443 | yes |
85 | 2018 | 232666 | Robin Hood and the Merry Men | 0.443 | no |
86 | 2015 | 160610 | Thunderbirds | 0.440 | yes |
87 | 2015 | 168435 | Between Two Cities | 0.438 | yes |
88 | 2013 | 133528 | City of Remnants | 0.438 | yes |
89 | 1993 | 3163 | Doom of the Eldar | 0.437 | no |
90 | 2006 | 14808 | Marvel Heroes | 0.435 | no |
91 | 2012 | 113924 | Zombicide | 0.435 | yes |
92 | 2018 | 257321 | Gen7: A Crossroads Game | 0.434 | yes |
93 | 2000 | 823 | The Lord of the Rings | 0.434 | no |
94 | 2018 | 209324 | The World of SMOG: Rise of Moloch | 0.428 | no |
95 | 2018 | 254591 | Heroes of Terrinoth | 0.428 | no |
96 | 2017 | 226320 | My Little Scythe | 0.426 | no |
97 | 2016 | 192945 | Coal Baron: The Great Card Game | 0.420 | no |
98 | 2019 | 248065 | Zombicide: Invader | 0.416 | no |
99 | 2013 | 52461 | Legacy: The Testament of Duke de Crecy | 0.414 | yes |
100 | 2019 | 256960 | Pax Pamir: Second Edition | 0.412 | no |
This section contains a variety of visualizations and metrics for assessing the performance of the model(s) during resampling. If you’re not particularly interested in predictive modeling, skip down further to the predictions from the model.
An easy way to examine the performance of classification model is to view a separation plot. We plot the predicted probabilities from the model for every game (from resampling) from lowest to highest. We then overlay a blue line for any game that the user does own. A good classifier is one that is able to separate the blue (games owned by the user) from the white (games not owned by the user), with most of the blue occurring at the highest probabilities (right side of the chart).
We can more formally assess how well each model did in resampling by looking at the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. A perfect model would receive a score of 1, while a model that cannot predict the outcome will default to a score of 0.5. The extent to which something is a good score depends on the setting, but generally anything in the .8 to .9 range is very good while the .7 to .8 range is perfectly acceptable.
wflow_id | .metric | .estimator | .estimate |
GLM | roc_auc | binary | 0.91 |
Decision Tree | roc_auc | binary | 0.82 |
Another way to think about the model performance is to view its lift, or its ability to detect the positive outcomes over that of a null model. High lift indicates the model can much more quickly find all of the positive outcomes (in this case, games owned or played by the user), while a model with no lift is no better than random guessing. A gains chart is another way to view this.
While we are probably more interested in the lift provided by the models to evaluate their efficacy, we can also explore the optimal cutpoint if we wanted to define a hard threshold for identifying games a user will own vs not own.
The threshold we select depends on how we much we care about false positives (games the model predicts that the user does not own) vs false negatives (games the user owns that the model does not predict). We can toggle threshold to
Finally, we can understand the performance of the model by examining its calibration. If the model assigns a probability of 5%, how often does the outcome actually occur? A well calibrated model is one in which the predicted probabilities reflect the probabilities we would observe in the actual data. We can assess the calibration of a model by grouping its predictions into bins and assessing how often we observe the outcome versus how often our model expects to observe the outcome.
A model that is well calibrated will closely follow the dashed line - its expected probabilities match that of the observed probabilities. A model that consistently underestimates the probability of the event will be over this dashed line, be a while a model that overestimates the probability will be under the dashed line.
What games does the model think J_3MBG is most likely to own that are not in their collection?
Published | ID | Name | Pr(Owned) | Owned |
2017 | 233078 | Twilight Imperium: Fourth Edition | 0.963 | no |
2019 | 266192 | Wingspan | 0.905 | no |
2019 | 281946 | Aftermath | 0.839 | no |
2011 | 96848 | Mage Knight Board Game | 0.821 | no |
2007 | 27627 | Talisman: Revised 4th Edition | 0.805 | no |
What games does the model think J_3MBG is least likely to own that are in their collection?
Published | ID | Name | Pr(Owned) | Owned |
1840 | 12856 | Shove Ha'penny | 0.001 | yes |
1995 | 2133 | Rage | 0.002 | yes |
2014 | 153318 | Dimension | 0.002 | yes |
2018 | 251293 | Megaland | 0.002 | yes |
1903 | 140 | Pit | 0.003 | yes |
Top 25 games most likely to be owned by the user in each year, highlighting in blue the games that the user has owned.
rank | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 |
1 | Descent: Journeys in the Dark (Second Edition) | Euphoria: Build a Better Dystopia | Roll for the Galaxy | Fury of Dracula (Third/Fourth Edition) | Arkham Horror: The Card Game | Twilight Imperium: Fourth Edition | Arkham Horror (Third Edition) | Tapestry |
2 | Android: Netrunner | Firefly: The Game | Star Wars: Imperial Assault | Tiny Epic Galaxies | Terraforming Mars | Spirit Island | Everdell | Wingspan |
3 | Robinson Crusoe: Adventures on the Cursed Island | Eldritch Horror | AquaSphere | Viticulture Essential Edition | Scythe | This War of Mine: The Board Game | Renegade | Aftermath |
4 | Space Cadets | City of Remnants | DungeonQuest Revised Edition | Runebound (Third Edition) | Star Wars: Rebellion | Gloomhaven | Cosmic Encounter: 42nd Anniversary Edition | The Magnificent |
5 | Keyflower | Legacy: The Testament of Duke de Crecy | Five Tribes | Thunderbirds | Black Orchestra | First Martians: Adventures on the Red Planet | Nemesis | Star Wars: Outer Rim |
6 | Zombicide | Room 25 | Fields of Arle | Between Two Cities | Mansions of Madness: Second Edition | Dinosaur Island | CO₂: Second Chance | The Lord of the Rings: Journeys in Middle-Earth |
7 | Il Vecchio | Burning Suns | Legendary Encounters: An Alien Deck Building Game | Copper Country | Martians: A Story of Civilization | Wendake | Warhammer Quest: Blackstone Fortress | Barrage |
8 | Wiz-War (Eighth Edition) | Lewis & Clark: The Expedition | Sons of Anarchy: Men of Mayhem | Metal Adventures | Aeon's End | Outlive | Underwater Cities | Era: Medieval Age |
9 | Merchant of Venus (Second Edition) | The New Science | La Granja | XCOM: The Board Game | A Feast for Odin | Charterstone | Rising Sun | Circadians: First Light |
10 | Rex: Final Days of an Empire | Forbidden Desert | King of New York | 504 | Coal Baron: The Great Card Game | Fallout | Coimbra | Tainted Grail: The Fall of Avalon |
11 | Yedo | Outer Earth | Roll Through the Ages: The Iron Age | Zombicide Season 3: Rue Morgue | Star Trek: Frontiers | Sagrada | Tierra y Libertad: The Mexican Revolution Game (Second Edition) | Clank!: Legacy – Acquisitions Incorporated |
12 | Archipelago | Glass Road | Castles of Mad King Ludwig | Forbidden Stars | Roll Player | Tau Ceti: Planetary Crisis | Duelosaur Island | Sierra West |
13 | Freedom: The Underground Railroad | Zombicide Season 2: Prison Outbreak | Space Hulk (Fourth Edition) | Burgle Bros. | The Manhattan Project: Energy Empire | Heaven & Ale | Robin Hood and the Merry Men | Hellenica: Story of Greece |
14 | CO₂ | Impulse | Artifacts, Inc. | Space Cadets: Away Missions | Dead of Winter: The Long Night | Too Many Bones | Gen7: A Crossroads Game | Marvel Champions: The Card Game |
15 | Android: Infiltration | Coal Baron | Imperial Settlers | Alien vs Predator: The Hunt Begins | Nova Aetas | My Little Scythe | The World of SMOG: Rise of Moloch | Maracaibo |
16 | The Manhattan Project | Viticulture | Alien Uprising | Warhammer Quest: The Adventure Card Game | Perdition's Mouth: Abyssal Rift | Anachrony | Heroes of Terrinoth | Zombicide: Invader |
17 | Star Trek Deck Building Game: The Next Generation – Next Phase | Craftsmen | Kill Shakespeare | The Gallerist | Agricola (Revised Edition) | Breaking Bad: The Board Game | Blackout: Hong Kong | Pax Pamir: Second Edition |
18 | Pax Porfiriana | Sail to India | Demigods Evolution | FUSE | Star Wars: Destiny | The Godfather: Corleone's Empire | Pandemic: Fall of Rome | Cthulhu: Death May Die |
19 | Smash Up | Patchistory | VivaJava: The Coffee Game: The Dice Game | Mission: Red Planet (Second Edition) | Forged in Steel | Gaia Project | Lords of Hellas | Fantastic Factories |
20 | Warhammer 40,000 (Sixth Edition) | Spyrium | Machina Arcana | Grimslingers | Game of Thrones: The Iron Throne | Pandemic Legacy: Season 2 | Star Realms: Frontiers | UBOOT: The Board Game |
21 | Snowdonia | Rococo | Splendor | Chaosmos | Kepler-3042 | Legend of the Five Rings: The Card Game | Newton | Black Angel |
22 | Disaster Looms! | Rogue Agent | Run, Fight, or Die! | Blood Rage | New Angeles | Pendragon: The Fall of Roman Britain | Who Goes There? | Tiny Towns |
23 | Dust Warfare: Core Rulebook | Zpocalypse | Onirim (Second Edition) | The Pursuit of Happiness | Great Western Trail | Massive Darkness | Space Marine Adventures: Labyrinth of the Necrons | The Isle of Cats |
24 | Mice and Mystics | Rockwell | Istanbul | Raptor | Dawn of the Zeds (Third Edition) | Wasteland Express Delivery Service | Bag of Dungeon: A Fantasy Adventure Game | Machina Arcana (Second/Third Edition) |
25 | Winter Tales | Hegemonic | New Dawn | Star Trek: Five-Year Mission | The Networks | Fate of the Elder Gods | Deep Madness | Ironclad |
This is an interactive table for the model’s predictions for the training set (from resampling).
We’ll validate the model by looking at its predictions for games published in 2020. That is, how well did a model trained on a user’s collection through 2020 perform in predicting games for the user in 2020?
username | outcome | dataset | method | .metric | .estimate |
J_3MBG | owned | validation | GLM | roc_auc | 0.785 |
J_3MBG | owned | validation | Decision Tree | roc_auc | 0.684 |
Table of top 50 games from 2020, highlighting games that the user owns.
Published | ID | Name | Pr(Owned) | Owned |
2020 | 184267 | On Mars | 0.859 | yes |
2020 | 246900 | Eclipse: Second Dawn for the Galaxy | 0.585 | yes |
2020 | 316554 | Dune: Imperium | 0.559 | yes |
2020 | 292333 | Cowboys II: Cowboys & Indians Edition | 0.544 | no |
2020 | 262274 | D6: Dungeons, Dudes, Dames, Danger, Dice and Dragons! | 0.499 | no |
2020 | 282922 | Windward | 0.454 | no |
2020 | 291457 | Gloomhaven: Jaws of the Lion | 0.445 | yes |
2020 | 233262 | Tidal Blades: Heroes of the Reef | 0.441 | no |
2020 | 306481 | Tawantinsuyu: The Inca Empire | 0.436 | no |
2020 | 298572 | Cosmic Encounter Duel | 0.408 | no |
2020 | 312804 | Pendulum | 0.366 | no |
2020 | 306735 | Under Falling Skies | 0.341 | yes |
2020 | 307033 | Space Marine Adventures: Rise of the Orks | 0.340 | yes |
2020 | 281655 | High Frontier 4 All | 0.326 | yes |
2020 | 284217 | Rush M.D. | 0.322 | yes |
2020 | 256317 | Guild Master | 0.302 | no |
2020 | 217990 | Stellar Horizons | 0.289 | no |
2020 | 300322 | Hallertau | 0.264 | no |
2020 | 233673 | Exploration | 0.243 | no |
2020 | 271055 | Dwellings of Eldervale | 0.242 | no |
2020 | 256999 | Project: ELITE | 0.233 | no |
2020 | 207486 | Infinities: Defiance of Fate | 0.228 | no |
2020 | 314040 | Pandemic Legacy: Season 0 | 0.224 | no |
2020 | 296151 | Viscounts of the West Kingdom | 0.213 | yes |
2020 | 226802 | Galilean Moons | 0.210 | yes |
2020 | 249275 | The Silver River | 0.210 | no |
2020 | 236861 | Full Moon Jacket | 0.197 | no |
2020 | 304420 | Bonfire | 0.193 | no |
2020 | 283155 | Calico | 0.188 | no |
2020 | 262208 | Dungeon Drop | 0.181 | no |
2020 | 299252 | Here to Slay | 0.178 | no |
2020 | 299317 | Aeon's End: Outcasts | 0.170 | no |
2020 | 248072 | Don't Let It Die | 0.167 | no |
2020 | 298371 | Wild Space | 0.163 | yes |
2020 | 318472 | Blood Bowl: Second Season Edition | 0.157 | yes |
2020 | 293889 | Fallout Shelter: The Board Game | 0.156 | no |
2020 | 248125 | Monumental | 0.152 | no |
2020 | 306040 | Merv: The Heart of the Silk Road | 0.150 | no |
2020 | 316750 | The Princess Bride Adventure Book Game | 0.150 | no |
2020 | 317985 | Beyond the Sun | 0.141 | no |
2020 | 309600 | Archers of Nand | 0.140 | no |
2020 | 282227 | One Small Step | 0.133 | no |
2020 | 276205 | Philosophia: Dare to be Wise | 0.132 | no |
2020 | 280794 | Etherfields | 0.130 | no |
2020 | 295905 | Cosmic Frog | 0.128 | no |
2020 | 286534 | The Quick and the Undead | 0.128 | no |
2020 | 310442 | Feierabend | 0.126 | no |
2020 | 314252 | Warhammer 40,000: Indomitus | 0.126 | no |
2020 | 301919 | Pandemic: Hot Zone – North America | 0.124 | no |
2020 | 274037 | Solar Storm | 0.122 | yes |
We can then refit our model to the training and validation set in order to predict all upcoming games for the user.
Examine the top 100 upcoming games, highlighting in blue ones the user already owns.
Rank | Published | ID | Name | Pr(Owned) | Owned |
1 | 2021 | 238908 | Evil Corp | 0.827 | yes |
2 | 2021 | 260524 | Beyond Humanity: Colonies | 0.783 | no |
3 | 2023 | 347909 | Rogue Angels: Legacy of the Burning Suns | 0.677 | no |
4 | 2021 | 329465 | Red Rising | 0.648 | no |
5 | 2022 | 331106 | The Witcher: Old World | 0.628 | no |
6 | 2022 | 310873 | Carnegie | 0.622 | no |
7 | 2023 | 349793 | Age of Rome | 0.594 | no |
8 | 2022 | 330950 | Age of Galaxy | 0.560 | no |
9 | 2022 | 319807 | Shogun no Katana | 0.499 | no |
10 | 2021 | 332075 | Warhammer Quest: Cursed City | 0.491 | yes |
11 | 2022 | 349067 | The Lord of the Rings: The Card Game – Revised Core Set | 0.488 | no |
12 | 2022 | 299106 | Fractal: Beyond the Void | 0.483 | no |
13 | 2022 | 273814 | Deliverance | 0.469 | no |
14 | 2021 | 291572 | Oath: Chronicles of Empire and Exile | 0.435 | no |
15 | 2021 | 283387 | Rocketmen | 0.433 | no |
16 | 2021 | 262201 | Sword & Sorcery: Ancient Chronicles | 0.428 | no |
17 | 2022 | 295770 | Frosthaven | 0.415 | no |
18 | 2021 | 315937 | X-Men: Mutant Insurrection | 0.414 | no |
19 | 2022 | 315610 | Massive Darkness 2: Hellscape | 0.406 | no |
20 | 2022 | 283137 | Human Punishment: The Beginning | 0.403 | no |
21 | 2023 | 337627 | Voidfall | 0.395 | no |
22 | 2021 | 344697 | Warhammer 40,000: Kill Team | 0.385 | no |
23 | 2021 | 298102 | Roll Camera!: The Filmmaking Board Game | 0.382 | no |
24 | 2022 | 305096 | Endless Winter: Paleoamericans | 0.381 | no |
25 | 2022 | 251661 | Oathsworn: Into the Deepwood | 0.381 | no |
26 | 2022 | 322524 | Bardsung | 0.372 | no |
27 | 2021 | 309319 | Apogee | 0.371 | no |
28 | 2022 | 317321 | Darkest Dungeon: The Board Game | 0.364 | no |
29 | 2021 | 323156 | Stroganov | 0.337 | no |
30 | 2021 | 252752 | Genotype: A Mendelian Genetics Game | 0.332 | yes |
31 | 2021 | 292126 | Excavation Earth | 0.326 | no |
32 | 2021 | 337324 | A.D.E.L.E. | 0.313 | no |
33 | 2021 | 344277 | Corrosion | 0.305 | no |
34 | 2021 | 340237 | Wonder Book | 0.291 | no |
35 | 2022 | 266064 | Trudvang Legends | 0.291 | no |
36 | 2021 | 225274 | Deep Space D-6: Armada | 0.289 | no |
37 | 2021 | 340466 | Unfathomable | 0.282 | yes |
38 | 2021 | 322708 | Descent: Legends of the Dark | 0.281 | no |
39 | 2021 | 331549 | MiniQuest Adventures | 0.275 | no |
40 | 2021 | 292375 | The Great Wall | 0.274 | no |
41 | 2022 | 341945 | La Granja: Deluxe Master Set | 0.273 | no |
42 | 2021 | 281676 | Galactic Era | 0.272 | no |
43 | 2021 | 277700 | Merchants Cove | 0.269 | yes |
44 | 2021 | 308566 | Nova Lux | 0.257 | no |
45 | 2022 | 324894 | Free Radicals | 0.257 | no |
46 | 2022 | 326945 | Castles of Mad King Ludwig: Collector's Edition | 0.257 | no |
47 | 2021 | 350758 | Aeronautica Imperialis: Wrath of Angels | 0.252 | yes |
48 | 2022 | 258779 | Planet Unknown | 0.251 | no |
49 | 2022 | 311988 | Frostpunk: The Board Game | 0.248 | no |
50 | 2021 | 343905 | Boonlake | 0.247 | no |
51 | 2021 | 310100 | Nemesis: Lockdown | 0.242 | yes |
52 | 2021 | 285967 | Ankh: Gods of Egypt | 0.232 | no |
53 | 2021 | 342942 | Ark Nova | 0.226 | no |
54 | 2022 | 284842 | So, You've Been Eaten | 0.225 | no |
55 | 2022 | 319421 | Mission Catastrophe | 0.218 | no |
56 | 2021 | 290236 | Canvas | 0.216 | no |
57 | 2021 | 338980 | Eastern Empires | 0.214 | no |
58 | 2022 | 305462 | The Age of Atlantis | 0.210 | no |
59 | 2021 | 317457 | Dinosaur World | 0.208 | no |
60 | 2022 | 316915 | U.S.S. Freedom | 0.204 | no |
61 | 2021 | 331212 | Aeon's End: Legacy of Gravehold | 0.198 | no |
62 | 2021 | 299566 | Batman: The Animated Series Adventures – Shadow of the Bat | 0.197 | no |
63 | 2022 | 352263 | Through Ice and Snow | 0.190 | no |
64 | 2022 | 319392 | Luna Maris | 0.190 | no |
65 | 2021 | 337397 | Warhammer Underworlds: Two-Player Starter Set | 0.190 | no |
66 | 2021 | 339958 | Gutenberg | 0.190 | no |
67 | 2021 | 352026 | Dungeon Bowl | 0.189 | no |
68 | 2022 | 355132 | Doctor Who: Don't Blink | 0.186 | yes |
69 | 2021 | 339906 | The Hunger | 0.183 | no |
70 | 2021 | 295535 | Dark Ages: Heritage of Charlemagne | 0.182 | no |
71 | 2022 | 350316 | Wayfarers of the South Tigris | 0.182 | yes |
72 | 2021 | 295785 | Euthia: Torment of Resurrection | 0.180 | yes |
73 | 2021 | 280984 | Ruins: Death Binder | 0.179 | no |
74 | 2021 | 344400 | Space Marine Adventures: Doomsday Countdown | 0.177 | yes |
75 | 2022 | 252315 | The Everrain | 0.174 | no |
76 | 2021 | 304985 | Dark Ages: Holy Roman Empire | 0.174 | no |
77 | 2022 | 308028 | Drop Drive | 0.172 | no |
78 | 2022 | 342900 | Earthborne Rangers | 0.172 | no |
79 | 2021 | 274861 | Venice | 0.171 | no |
80 | 2022 | 317511 | Tindaya | 0.170 | no |
81 | 2021 | 336382 | Marvel United: X-Men | 0.166 | no |
82 | 2021 | 341169 | Great Western Trail (Second Edition) | 0.165 | no |
83 | 2022 | 347703 | First Rat | 0.163 | no |
84 | 2021 | 249277 | Brazil: Imperial | 0.162 | no |
85 | 2021 | 259962 | Stress Botics | 0.162 | no |
86 | 2022 | 322656 | burncycle | 0.160 | no |
87 | 2022 | 280726 | Legacies | 0.155 | no |
88 | 2021 | 350072 | Warhammer Underworlds: Harrowdeep | 0.154 | no |
89 | 2021 | 266448 | Imperium: The Contention | 0.154 | no |
90 | 2021 | 339789 | Welcome to the Moon | 0.154 | yes |
91 | 2021 | 255984 | Sleeping Gods | 0.153 | no |
92 | 2021 | 342848 | World of Warcraft: Wrath of the Lich King | 0.148 | no |
93 | 2021 | 301366 | Caves of Rwenzori | 0.147 | no |
94 | 2022 | 256997 | Perseverance: Castaway Chronicles – Episodes 1 & 2 | 0.147 | yes |
95 | 2022 | 282775 | The Warp | 0.144 | no |
96 | 2022 | 284118 | Mechanical Beast | 0.144 | no |
97 | 2021 | 290484 | Unsettled | 0.144 | yes |
98 | 2021 | 247585 | Waste Knights: Second Edition | 0.144 | yes |
99 | 2022 | 260923 | Titan | 0.142 | no |
100 | 2021 | 273330 | Bloodborne: The Board Game | 0.142 | no |